TCL Wolf Game 8 - Wolf Discussion

Feel free to discuss strategy and the game in this thread. I do ask that you either PM me on the CSFBL forums or IM me in order to tell me your night actions.

The wolves for this game are:

Player	Role
crocko	Wolf Framer
andujar	Wolf Cub
cubsfella	Wolf Assassin
modenwelder	Alpha Wolf
poetsbreed	Wolf
bill	Wolf
benjipla	Wolf

Hi Wolves

i'm just a baby.

ok, so are we going to work on any "meta" strategies... we've got ken and reds who are both innocent and play the truth telling game, which is bound to come up (probably sooner rather than later). If they are an important role, that could help us, but if they are villagers, it will help the powered players narrow the field because they are really the only ones who can be trusted. So that is something to keep an eye on.

I wouldn't be opposed to sacrificing myself, benji, or poets some point early in the game. Try to gain some credibility by having the other wolves (or at least a portion of them) going strong at one of us early and trying to get us killed.

quick hitter for finding a seer... about 50% of the time, the seer posts the word 'see' alot, whoever posts it the most is a primary target.

my role, 'cub', isn't one to avoid sacrificing either. you'll get two kills if/when i die.

i haven't thought much about the reds/ken dynamic. reds generally has so much confusion built into his posts, that i think smart wolves can have him lead us to lynching villagers.

generally, i think it is best to stay distanced from other wolves, especially in the voting aspect. With this many wolves, we want to avoid the village getting information about another wolf from a wolf lynch.

ok, no offense to poets, but his two posts (which I'll post here) just scream "filler" and I could see him coming under suspicious early in the game. They are the same type of posts that many wolves have made in previous games (koller and crocko come to mind) that have resulted in them becoming prime targets early on

now to right a 4 page paper for tomorrow, i may be quiet for a little while.

for people with a lot of games, look at what they do the majority of the time i'ld assume

if need be u can sacrifice me, but afro picked a shitty day for the start for me, i don't know how much i can be on before monday night

andujar wrote:my role, 'cub', isn't one to avoid sacrificing either. you'll get two kills if/when i die.

i haven't thought much about the reds/ken dynamic. reds generally has so much confusion built into his posts, that i think smart wolves can have him lead us to lynching villagers.

generally, i think it is best to stay distanced from other wolves, especially in the voting aspect. With this many wolves, we want to avoid the village getting information about another wolf from a wolf lynch.

I'll disagree with the reds thing, while he is VERY confusing and usually unhelpful, he is also trustworthy. I didn't doubt his innocense for a second last game when I was the seer and never considered wasting my see on him. I would not target him if he comes out and says he's innocent, thats what the wolves did last time (I believe sug and joke pushed for reds much of the game) and just further solidified their wolf status to me.

I also think trying to keep you alive for as long as possible would be good. A surprise two kills near the end of the game could really come in useful, much more so than early on.

And generally I also agree it is best to "play your own game" and not have all the wolves do the same thing. However we have to keep it in the back of our mind that we can manipulate the village into thinking what we want them to think at times. I'm not saying put all our eggs into one basket, just that it is something to keep in mind. The village have gotten significantly better over the games, while the wolf strategy has sort of stagnated imo

in the early game someone could use the sacrifice for the wolf idea, then have people play their own game, and mid game start influencing/teaming up more.

boobs may make an easy target if he keeps his current act up

Hey there .... I am going to be meeting and out of pocket tomorrow for a fair amount of time. But, I think I can get some posts in now, and a few in the morning before I leave. First time I am a wolf here. If any of you have any suggestions for me as the Alpha, let me know. I will probably act as villager as possible, since that makes the most sense.

Let me know if you have any suggestions, though.

i figure i need to act slightly more assertive than last game, since i barely survived it, but also first time wolf and suggestioned are helpful

andujar wrote:my role, 'cub', isn't one to avoid sacrificing either. you'll get two kills if/when i die.

This *could* be an awesome moment... We will get everybody all happy for finding you, a wolf, and then strike hard as we kill 2 guys. The highest of highs, the lowest of lows... The thrill of victory, the agony of defeat.

I feel good about this group. And, having 7 is nice. Two NLs are going to be crucial here... Hopefully one of us doesn't get picked off early.

moden, don't u appear as adolecence and not wolf??

I just appear as a Vanillager. I am the Alpha Wolf. Andujar appears as an infant.

It will also be fun that right when I'm about to be lynched, I assassinate someone before I die. That is, if they catch me, it would be awfully nice for the wolves to win one, its been a while.

Hiya guys,

Before starting to sacrifice I'd say we'd probably need to help the villagers getting someone lynched(preferably not boobs, since he's the village idiot and can be lynched at any day.. ). If that doesnt work

I'll check in on the CSFBL forums around 12 pm EST and see what's cooking, but I'll be around on this forum for the day.

Of course the sacrificing of our cub andujar on the first day would give us some paranoia in the village since we get to kill two, which could result in a "third party" motive. Then again andujar is a valuable assett to our group.

If we get to kill now I would lean towards getting Joke and/or citizen on the first night.
Joke if he remains quiet(which could imply a role), and otherwise citizen since he turned out to be a very methodical player in the previous TBL game.

Moden wrote:Hey there .... I am going to be meeting and out of pocket tomorrow for a fair amount of time. But, I think I can get some posts in now, and a few in the morning before I leave. First time I am a wolf here. If any of you have any suggestions for me as the Alpha, let me know. I will probably act as villager as possible, since that makes the most sense.

Let me know if you have any suggestions, though.

My advice would be to act like you did when you were the seer in the first TBL game, you remained pretty much under the radar for the wolves as well as the villagers by being the quiet type.

Which brings me to another possible strategy, if the seer isnt revealed on Day 3/4, some of us should come forward as the seer, before the real one(or the dead one).

I'm going to check the forum to get some more ideas...

The boobs factor is once again running the thread, so I guess we can be sure of a boobs lynching yet on the first day yet again...

I'm going to try and use my "don't lynch boobs" strategy from the last game and try and look for other "suspects".

Come on guys, wake up and get some strategy going for this afternoon!

i think i may be stuck going for boobs since i "led the charge against him"

that said i'm busy today for stretches of time, which isnt helpful

poEtsbrEEd wrote:i think i may be stuck going for boobs since i "led the charge against him"

that said i'm busy today for stretches of time, which isnt helpful

Just be sure your timing is right when you post, Cubs already arose suspicion by quickly voting, but I'm sure he can handle a little pressure.

What do you think about the eventual night kill(ings)..? Giving us your input is more important than the actual lynch voting.

killing an honesty pledge may not be a bad play

poEtsbrEEd wrote:killing an honesty pledge may not be a bad play

This is an interesting point... The longer those guys stick around, the more of a corner it sticks us in.

that's the reason i wouldn't honesty pledge, seems like its a marker to be killed early. i was supprised the wolves last game left ken alive so long.

Moden wrote:

poEtsbrEEd wrote:killing an honesty pledge may not be a bad play

This is an interesting point... The longer those guys stick around, the more of a corner it sticks us in.

Fortunately Ken isnt playing this game, and we only have to consider Reds' pledge. My personal preference would be to get citizen and/or joke out of the way first then Reds.

Of course if the village picks up on the Cubs bandwagon, Cubs gets the choice to kill off any one of them as Assassin.

One last comment, and this is just a suggestion. While I think it might also not be a bad idea to sacrifice one of us early, it's good to bandwagon a bit. The first day, as we all notice, simply by participating you arouse suspicion.

Not that I have to mention this, but somehow, if things take a turn toward Cubs, make sure you get that shot off before 4 PM. I would strongly consider someone like Reds with that.

Also, the other thing we have to think about is -- who is worth framing? Crocko's role is VERY useful here. Who is the seer most likely to see tonight? Probably a "big name." Is Joke worth framing tonight? Would our seer be savvy enough to go after experience? Would they go after Andujar? Who else might they go after? Bill? Zubaz? Where the F is Zubaz? He's laying very low right now...

Off to my meeting...

are we pretty sure of a third party role?

off to class

16/7 village/wolf ratio. With an alpha plus other good wolf power. Wthe village is likely armed very well. Expect all powers

Bill is right on the cub power, if I'm alive late, the douuble kill is much more powerful

Poets: some tips from me (a non-successful wolf so far). Defend yourdelf, but not too aggresively, do it appearing like town, find something that someone else said that could appear wolfy.

I think reds is a good dinner. I have no seer reads. Joke always a good option. Clone may be smart 'safem option as well. He too fucking good at everything. By safe I mean unlikely to be protected.

Alright, I am really just about to get on the road, though I don't want to post on the main board. Pigge just mentioned something about PMing trusted folks. That would be a good thing to mention that is "illegal." Can't PM. BRH just let it slide. I think Pigge is fishing towards PJ.

Or... Just let it unfold!

Good catch, someone else can hit that (maybe poets could use the catch to gain some cred)

It is possible that pj and pigge are masons. It is also a possibility that pigge typoed

Ii changed my mind. Ipoets inclass. I hit it.

if i skimmed it right in class pj is willing to follow my lead.

zubaz might be an easy kill, he said in the signups he is will have limited availibility today

Jelly, Zubaz and Clone are all dangerous players just because of how much influence they have. Its unlikely we would get one of them lynched unless they did something stupid. I agree that Clone would be a pretty good first night kill, unlikely to be protected.

If I end up for some reason being targeted today, I will probably take Reds out with me.

i'm curious how throwing zubaz's name out will be since he hasn't posted almost anything.

poEtsbrEEd wrote:i'm curious how throwing zubaz's name out will be since he hasn't posted almost anything.

Well he did an honesty pledge in his sole post, so it would give some discussion at least. Of course picking on him while he's weak at this point could turn around against you.

might be worth the risk, seems like zubaz has potential to be a powerful player, and i am just a wolf, no powers or anything.

poEtsbrEEd wrote:might be worth the risk, seems like zubaz has potential to be a powerful player, and i am just a wolf, no powers or anything.

I think you already planted a seed to go after Zubaz, several others seem to consider it, wait it out a little while, you could be on to something

Just voted for koller but will probably change it depending on how the day devellops.

Czar and sugar are both players who havent done much on the boards and can almost be "wolfy" in their reactions when attacked on the board. Keep this in mind as one of us could send a feeler out today or tomorrow.

Just be careful and discuss before posting about them, since we dont want similar posts at the same time.

I'm just catching up on everything, but my initial reaction would be dont be too quick to jump on the bandwagon of the "hot vote" as that always raises suspicion.

Also, I'd maybe plant the seeds for a later vote for someone like zubaz, but taking out a historically strong player w/ a day 1 lynch is a fools game and will only backfire imo. Lay the foundation to come back to it later (if we haven't already killed him), but to go at it gung ho right now is a faulty strategy to me

I would actually be very wary that zubaz has a strong power. He's a smart guy, and I dont doubt that he's been planning what to do if he gets certain roles. A plain old villagers job is to try and take heat away from the seer, and zubaz just did the exact opposite by narrowing the pool for us to search for the powered roles... unless zubaz actually is a powered villager

thats my gut feeling, that zubaz is something useful. So a day 1 lynch would certainly be great, I just have my doubts that it wont backfire

although in that case, I'm pretty sure I could easily turn it on someone like wolf, who jumped on the "kill zubaz" bandwagon right away. Unfortunately, the csfbl forums are running like shit for me right now and i can't do anything without a 5 minute wait for a page to load.

zubaz has 2 votes, ill wait as long as i feel safe before bandwagoning my vote

csfbl forums are slow for me too.. So I think it might be a general issue.

It would be nice if the village gets zubaz today, but I'm going to be careful not to jump the wagon.

btw, I've pointed out to andujar on AIM that jelly could be the seer, check out post #151 starting with See and using glean in it as well, andujar pointed out that jelly's #154 post implies he was dissappointed in other games to not have a role, which suggests that he has one this game.

very interesting. Any chance andujar has talked to jelly about the tendancy for the seer to post "see" or things like that a lot (or that jelly has figured that out himself, which is very possible). It's possible its a ploy, and jelly is trying to get us to eat him although I don't see jelly as one to sacrifice himself this early as he probably views himself more useful in finding the wolves than the "average" villager. He could potentially have a power that only works when we eat him, but again that seems like something we can't really worry about until it happens if that is the case.

All in all, jelly would be a fine target for us imo even if he is just a normal villager, its always a good play to get out one of the smarter more persuasive villagers. We have to keep in mind though that he could be a potential angel protect.

if he has a power like hunter that activates on death, whats the chances he actually chooses one of us to die with him

poEtsbrEEd wrote:if he has a power like hunter that activates on death, whats the chances he actually chooses one of us to die with him

More the reason to kill him off if he has that role, he hasnt put much attention to any of us, so more likely he's getting another villager instead.

eh, I doubt he's the hunter, because as you guys say, it wouldn't be useful to use right now. But we have to keep in mind there has to be some serious power on the villager side... combine the fact that we have some solid wolf powers and that there was no night 0 actions (seer/psychic/etc), it is pretty obvious that the village are packing some serious heat.

last game i was the hunter and had no clue who any wolves were most of the game, and was considering killing the most helpful villager if i was lynched

really wish that the forum for the game was going faster, kinda was feeling it is a good time
to vote